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Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as “steering the economy to a soft landing” or “a touch on the brakes,” makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth.
很多用来描述货币政策的词，如“引导经济软着陆”，“触动经济刹车”，使货币政策听起来像是一门精确的科学。事实远非如此。
The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain.
利率和通货膨胀之间的关系难以确定。
And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy.
在政策改变对经济产生影响之前，会有一段较长时间且变化不定的后滞期。
Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
因此，才会有人将货币政策的制定比作是驾驶一辆汽车，这辆车挡风玻璃被涂黑了、后视镜裂了，方向盘也失灵了。
Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had 
much to boast about of late.
尽管有这么多不利因素，中央银行家们似乎对近来之形势有了不少值得夸耀的东西。
Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
西方七大工业国去年的平均通货膨胀降至仅2.3%，接近三十年来的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5%。这远远低于许多国家在70年代和80年代早期经历的两位数的膨胀率。
It is also less than most forecasters had predicted.
这也低于许多预测者预测的数字。
In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole.
1994年底，每月接受《经济学家》意见调查的一组经济学家指出，美国在1995年的平均通货膨胀率将达到3.5%。实际上，8月份就降到了2.6%，而且有望全年仅为3%。
In Britain and 
Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year.
去年年底，英国和日本的通货膨胀率实际上比预测的要低半个百分点。
This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
这不是昙花一现；在过去几年里，英国和美国的通货膨胀率始终低于预测水平。
Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack.
经济学家对英美两国有利的通胀率特别感到诧异，因为传统的计量方法表明两国经济，特别是美国经济几乎没有出现生产萧条。
America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment -- the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
比如，美国的生产力利用率在今年早些时候达到了历史最高水平，失业率（八月份为5.6%）已降到低于很多人对自然失业率的估测——过去，当比率低于自然失业率时，通货膨胀率早已迅速上升。
Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective.
为何通货膨胀如此和缓？可惜的是，即使是最令人兴奋的解释也会有小的缺陷。
Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
一些经济学家认为，世界经济结构强有力的变化已经推翻了以往那种以经济增长和通货膨胀率的历史关联为基础的旧有的经济模式。
试题：
51. From the passage we learn that.
[A] there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates
[B] economy will always follow certain models
[C] the economic situation is better than expected
[D] economists had foreseen the present economic situation
52. According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE?
[A] Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car
[B] An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation
[C] A high unemployment rate will result from inflation
[D] Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy
53.The sentence “This is no flash in the pan” (Line 5, Paragraph 3) means that.
[A] the low inflation rate will last for some time
[B] the inflation rate will soon rise
[C] the inflation will disappear quickly
[D] there is no inflation at present
54.The passage shows that the author is_____the present situation.
[A] critical of
[B] puzzled by
[C] disappointed at
[D] amazed at
